No next-generation fighter waiting in the wings

With their livelihoods dependent on receiving lucrative government business, defense contractors are sweating on the selection of a next-generation fighter for the Air Self-Defense Force. A number of obstacles, however, have delayed a decision by the Defense Ministry, which is desperate to replace the ASDF's aging F-4 jets as soon as possible. Defense Ministry officials have long coveted the state-of-the-art F-22 Raptor, but a U.S. congressional ban on the export of the jet was followed by the U.S. government's decision to scrap future production of the jet altogether. Once a replacement for the F-4 is selected, the Defense Ministry plans to eventually purchase about 50 jets. Defense contractors fear a longer delay in picking a new fighter could cripple production capabilities in Japan. Defense Ministry officials have said the F-22 was the most capable fighter jet available today, mainly because of its stealth capabilities that make it difficult to detect by radar. The Raptor also has many sought-after functions, including control of airspace and air-to-ground attack capability. However, because the technology used in building the F-22 is highly classified, Congress in 2007 banned its export, even to allies. In April, the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama announced it was cutting off future procurement of the Raptor as part of a review of defense spending. The jet has a high price tag. Each unit sold to the U.S. Air Force costs about 14 billion yen. Even if exports were allowed, the Defense Ministry might end up paying about 30 billion yen for each jet, with additional development costs included. Defense Ministry officials have not completely abandoned hope of obtaining the F-22. Some members of the U.S. Congress are calling for a continuation of production of the F-22 as a way of securing jobs for American workers. Japanese government officials are believed to have lobbied some American legislators about keeping the Raptor in production. When he visited the United States in May, Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada once again told Defense Secretary Robert Gates about Japan's wish to buy the F-22. Gates in turn tried to convince Hamada to think about purchasing the F-35. While the F-35 has the same high capabilities of the F-22, it is still in the development stage. Even if the F-35 was eventually exported to Japan, the earliest the jet would be available would be after about 2015. By that time, the F-4 would be well past its shelf life. Amid the confused situation, other American and European companies are intensifying their sales efforts. Among the most eager has been BAE Systems Plc., which serves as point company for the Eurofighter, made by a consortium of four European nations. BAE Systems has promised to allow licensed production by Japanese companies as well as provision of technology. Officials have also contacted Japanese companies that could serve as candidates for licensed production. One barrier is the fact that the Defense Ministry has never used a fighter jet made in Europe. Some within the ASDF have raised concerns about maintenance of the jets, while others in the government worry about potential negative effects on the security alliance with the United States. Boeing has had close ties with the ASDF for many years and made its own pitch in March by coming out with a new model of its F-15. The model improves upon the high air-to-ground attack capabilities of the F-15E model while also including stealth capabilities. Two other jets produced by Boeing had been included on the list of possible successors to the F-4, but were not appraised highly because their designs were considered outdated and they lacked stealth capability. Now, Boeing officials say they would approve licensed production in Japan of the new F-15SE model as well as provide Japanese companies with the technology used in the jet. For Japanese companies, being allowed to take part in licensed production will be a matter of survival. While Japan could have simply imported fighter jets, for more than 50 years the fighters used by the ASDF have continuously been procured through licensed production. The licensed production system was put in place because the production technology accumulated could provide defense capabilities during emergencies more rapidly than outside procurement. However, the delay in selecting a new fighter jet means there will be a break for the first time in postwar Japan of domestic production of fighter jets after the final F-2 is manufactured in 2011. If the F-22 was selected as the next fighter jet, it would most likely have to be imported because of the classified technology used in its manufacture. The military journalist Shinichi Kiyotani said, "That would mean the domestic aircraft production industry would have to move out of the defense field." There are about 1,200 companies involved in the production of fighter jets in Japan. Those companies have engineers and manufacturing lines with special abilities. An official with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd., the largest defense contractor, said, "Manufacturing technology in the defense sector is like a traditional art form-- in that if it is not passed on and is lost, it can never be recovered." The Society of Japanese Aerospace Companies conducted a confidential survey about the next-generation fighter jet. A report was compiled in February, and organization officials have repeatedly lobbied Defense Ministry officials about the dire future facing member companies. According to a copy of the survey results obtained by The Asahi Shimbun, 67 percent of respondents raised concerns about having to shrink fighter jet operations if licensed production was not allowed. Toshikazu Miyabe, a senior vice president with the society, said: "Unless something is done, the foundation by which domestic manufacturers supported operations of the SDF will be discontinued. We are asking the government to join us in thinking about what can be done to rectify the situation."

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