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Friday, June 26, 2009

Japan Could Be Offered $290 Million F-22


A letter from Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii), chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, to Japan's ambassador in Washington lists an estimated average unit cost of $290 million per aircraft for a theoretical export sale of 40 F-22 Raptors.Both Inouye and Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.), chairman of the House defense appropriations subcommittee, and other lawmakers in both chambers are pushing both in public and behind the scenes to allow export of the stealthy, fifth-generation fighter.But a White House veto threat and persistent opposition from Pentagon leadership - as well as tenuous congressional support - are ratcheting up budget-making tension in Washington. Moreover, the Senate Armed Services Committee - with its leadership backing the President and defense secretary over the F-22 - marked up a bill this week that will lead to a lawmaking showdown with the House.Inouye's letter to Ichiro Fujisake, Japan's Ambassador to Washington, starts with the assumption of a letter of agreement in early 2010, with major development taking "approximately four years, followed by ground and flight testing." Procurement of long-lead materials would begin in 2011 with production to begin in mid-2014, The first mission capable aircraft could be delivered to Japan in 2017."The estimate for non-recurring development and manufacturing cost is $2.3 billion," the letter continues. "The actual cost to produce forty aircraft is approximately $9.3 billion, bringing the total to $11.6 billion. Spreading that cost over an estimated forty aircraft leads to an average aircraft cost of $290 million."An associated letter to Defense Secretary Robert Gates says the figures were calculated using "information which was provided by the Air Force," Inouye's second letter says. "I believe the government of Japan is likely to be interested in purchasing the aircraft even at the relatively high price which has been estimated."Congressional support for the F-22 is creating a lot of political tension, but aerospace industry analysts say it's all just rhetoric unless someone in the executive branch -- preferably from the White House -- steps up to support extended Raptor production and export.The Pentagon is paying $142.5 million per aircraft as part of a multi-year contract. Aerospace industry analysts say that any break in F-22 production would add extra costs.Meanwhile, the White House's Office of Management and Budget (OMB) was drawing a number of lines in the sand marking disagreements with the House passage of the Fiscal 2010 defense authorization bill.A Statement of Administration Policy issued late June 23 contends that the White House Office of Management and Budget will recommend a veto of the proposed legislation if it includes $369 million in advanced procurement funds for F-22s in FY '11 or the addition of $603 million for an alternative engine program for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter."This is nothing unusual," an industry analyst says. "It happens every time" there is new defense legislation.There were other points of contention without the veto threat attached:* Restrictions on the Missile Defense Agency limiting U.S. engagements with NATO and European allies regarding missile defense.* The need to add proposals to build the capacity of partner nation special and conventional forces in order to improve and increase coalition participation in Afghanistan and Iraq.* Requirements to maintain the strategic airlift fleet at 316 aircraft and restrictions on retiring C-5s.* Restrictions on the Futenma Replacement Facility in Okinawa that would broach agreements reached with Japan and put the international agreement on the facility at risk.* Restrictions on accelerated aircraft retirement by the U.S. Air Force.* A reduction of $163 million in funding for the Army's Extended Range Multi-Purpose unmanned aircraft which would result in a 50 percent cut in systems planned for FY '10.

22 comments:

$290 million [per F22] - hat's two squadrons worth of any modern trainer jet (whether it be T50 or M346). i can't believe the Americans actually dare to put such a price tag on a "first rate" jet that barely has 60% combat readiness rate.

62%, to be exact,
as of early this year.

The Pentagon just wants to share its pain of spending ridiculously on defense systems.

Just for comparison:

Saudi spent 6 billion Euro on 72 Trench 2 & 3 Typhoons, which translates to roughly $125 million per copy including spare & logistics.

Austies spent $6 billion on 24 F/A-18F Block 3 Super Hornets, which translates to roughly $250 million per copy, spare and logistics included.

American military hardware are freakishly expensive. The question is: are they that much better than their international counterparts?

Any F22 buy isn't likely to come with sufficient number, owner autonomy let alone readiness rate.

Moreover, a permanent presence of F22 in Asia would piss China off, big time, unwittingly destabilize the region. Not good.

whatever F-22 may cost, given a chance all major nations will love to lay their hands on it. Its not just improved capability, it adds new dimensions to capability and enables to concieve missions not possible with Typhoon or F18 likes.

"a permanent presence of F22 in Asia would piss China off, big time, unwittingly destabilize the region. Not good."

No offense but thats just nonsense. It also contradicts your first paragraph.

EGO ASIDE, there is no tactical or strategic reason for any US allies to buy F22 Raptor.

Moreover, the worldwide security focus has shifted from traditional large scale military confrontation to asymmetrical warfare like counterinsurgency.

Para, none taken.

Oh yeah, tell me how it's so?

F22, however revolutionary, is prohibitively expensive, top secret and highly maintenance intensive. Besides, it barely finds a [realistic] niche in post Cold War military landscape.

"Oh yeah, tell me how it's so?"

Well, generally a fighter that comes, as you write, without sufficient numbers, user autonomy and readiness rate, isnt exactly a terrible, destabilizing threat, especially not to the only nation in the region, that can field high numbers of relatively modern fighter designs itself. Thats the contradiction in your post I was referring to.
Another point that comes to my mind is the character of this fighter, which is not a strategic weapon system such as say potentially n-tipped BMs or CMs, and therefore a general destabilization just because of the F-22 is highly questionable.

Last but not least its Japan, which wants to buy this aircraft. The same country which already has arguably the most capable military in the region aside from China, an ongoing 5th gen fighter program of its own and enough other assets that would threaten China significantly in any (defensive?) confrontation.

Would this case concern Taiwan instead of China, I would certainly see much more logic in your point.

This comment has been removed by the author.

I meant to say "Taiwan instead of Japan" in my last sentence.

Re: Para

What would be the logic behind buying a fighter that's so expensive that it most likely comes in limited number; so top secret that maintenance cannot be done on-site or in-country; unavailable 40% of the time due to maintenance-related issues?

On the other hand, IF JASDF somehow managed to own and operate F22, you wouldn't think DPRK or China wouldn't plan its counter-move (from sabotage to regional arm race) against the supercruising & radar-evading jet that can enter their airspace unchallenged?

@Anon:

The first paragraph refers to points brought up by armchair commentator further up, not by me. I merely replied to one of his assumptions.

As for your second part, well, NK is not able to engage in any kind of arms race apart from its rag-tag nuclear program and this is going to continue anyway for reasons other than new aircraft.

As far as China is concerned, they already do research in 5th gen aircraft technologies, because they have to anyway.
That the F-22 can enter their airspace unchallenged is a very bold, if not incorrect speculation that defies certain physical principles and operational realities.

The only difference a japanese F-22 is going to make in the near-term, that I can see, is its impact on the japanese defence budget.

Re: Para

DPRK is still known to carry out special ops across the DMZ and even on Japanese soil.

In your dream, Para. Go & get your head checked before coming back here, won't you. F22 for export will be even more expensive; yeah, well, at least you got that part right.

F22 is a "first day of the war weapon". Used judiciously even small numbers can achieve significant tactical objectives. It should therefore be seen as a force multiplier. There is no point in comparing its unit cost to that of other jets. It will be used in situations and missions where others wont dare venture.

Agree. It's a silver bullet specifically designed to dominate the sky and dash enemy IADS.

Japan's FS-X procurement program is rumored to be at $7 billion in potential value.

Divide that number by $290 Million per copy for the export version of F22, and you get just 24 airframes (and whether that includes logistics is still a big question mark). Moreover, 60% [readiness rate] of 24 is 14. It means that a $7 billion investment can only yield 14 sortie-ready Raptors --- that's pitiful.

The bottom line is: F22, however revolutionary, when exported has an extremely unfavorable cost-to-return ratio compared to other less capable candidates.

"In your dream, Para. Go & get your head checked before coming back here, won't you."

Childish insults are the last resort of dim minds. So I give that recommendation right back to you.

Also just for comparison:

India has recently finalized a plan to purchase 6 A330 MRTT tankers from EADS. The deal is valued at $1 billion for 6 tankers, making the

A330-MRTT roughly $170 million per copy.

This make DoD/LM's $290 million per exportable F22 proposition sounds even more ridiculous, doesn't it?

OR $265 million* per exportable P-8I MMA

* $2.1 billion for 8 MMA aircraft for Indian Navy

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