Australia Will Build Forces as China Rises

Australia will powerfully strengthen and reorient its defense forces in the face of a rising China that it expects to wield an increasingly long reach.Assessing risks in the changing Asian balance of power out to 2030, a defense white paper sets out plans for land-attack missiles as a strategic strike force based on a fleet of larger and more numerous warships.One-for-one replacement of the country's combat aircraft, previously only an aspiration of the Royal Australian Air Force, has now become formal government policy. The document reaffirms the choice of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning, saying Australia will buy about 100 of the stealthy fighters, beginning with an order for at least 72 to replace F/A-18 Hornets bought in the 1980s.A later batch will replace 24 Boeing F/A-18F Super Hornets that Australia will introduce next year as stopgaps to cover the retirement of General Dynamics F-111 strike bombers.Up to seven large, long-endurance drones and eight Boeing P-8 Poseidons will take over the maritime patrol mission from P-3Cs, and the country also plans to deploy a surveillance satellite, as part of a fledgling space effort (see article below). Data from the satellite, which will probably have synthetic aperture radar, will be shared with the U.S.Data-network protection will move to the foreground with the establishment of a cybersecurity operations center. New data architecture will share information between units across all three services, and the government says it will enhance intelligence-gathering capability in "a number of mostly classified projects."A requirement for at least 24 naval helicopters is confirmed, but the air force transport fleet will be smaller than expected (AW&ST Mar. 28, p. 53). Ten light transports will replace 14 old de Havilland Canada Caribous, and only two more Lockheed Martin C-130Js will be bought as 12 C-130Hs are retired.As part of a major buildup of the navy, three destroyers under construction will get Raytheon SM-6 surface-to-air missiles, whose targeting data may come from Boeing Wedgetail airborne-early-warning aircraft already on order.A planned addition of two infantry battalions to Australia's small army will continue, and the ground force's six Boeing CH-47D Chinook helicopters will be replaced with seven CH-47Fs.The white paper is stuffed with so many plans for new and improved capabilities that analysts are not sure they can all be paid for."It is unclear whether enough money is there for all these major initiatives," says Andrew Davies, an analyst with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra.The government proposes 3% annual real increases in defense spending until 2018 and 2.2% from then until 2030.Davies also notes that the white paper is vague on timing for most of the acquisitions, although another document, the Defense Capability Plan, will probably give more details within a few months.Assuming enough money comes through, the acquisition plan and Australia's emphasis on domestic production seem to promise decades of good business for the main local industrial players, such as BAE Systems, Thales, Boeing and EADS.China has clearly become the focus of Australian defense planning. The dense bureaucratese of the white paper naturally avoids bluntly saying so, but the message is clear from its extensive discussion of China's rising strength and from the declaration that Australia must be able to cope alone with "the remote but plausible potential of confrontation with a major power adversary."While mentioning India only briefly, the white paper says China's "military modernization will be increasingly characterized by the development of power projection capabilities."Repeating a common complaint from Washington, Canberra says China is not explaining its military modernization, which may be going "beyond the scope of what would be required for a conflict over Taiwan."Meanwhile, Australia expects the U.S. to be increasingly stretched. It will clearly be the world's strongest military power out to 2030, but sometimes too busy in one part of the world to attend fully to another. The U.S. will be forced to ask for help in crises, Australia says, evidently preparing to pitch in.The white paper even frets quietly about Australia's worst strategic nightmare - the risk of the U.S. one day withdrawing from the Western Pacific. The new defense plan would lay the foundation for Australia to build up further in response to such strategic upsets, it says.Aiming to defend itself without having to call on U.S. assistance, Australia is shifting the weight of its fighting power heavily toward its navy, even as it reinforces its air force and army.At the center of the force structure will be a fleet of at least 12 submarines, each larger than the current six Collins Class boats, which are already the world's largest nonnuclear submarines.Displacements of at least 4,000 tons seem likely, especially since the submarines will need room for land-attack missiles. The missiles will also go on board a proposed class of eight frigates, also larger than their predecessors, and on three destroyers that are already on order."The government places a priority on broadening our strategic strike options," says the white paper.In fact, it looks like the real aim is to gain a longer reach. Since the 1970s Australia has assigned its strategic mission to the F-111s, whose radius of about 2,000 km. (1,200 mi.) reflected Australia's main security concern of the day, Indonesia. The F-111's ultimate replacements, F-35s, will offer about the same radius with a single inflight refueling, but submarines could hit much more distant targets.Since little work has been done on the new submarines, the first unit is unlikely to enter service before the early 2020s. The Collins Class will begin retiring in the middle of that decade, so the submarine fleet probably cannot reach 12 units until the 2030s.Australia will arrange the construction program so it can build more submarines in the 2030s if necessary, the government says.Even without those extra units, submarines will probably outnumber main surface combatants in the Royal Australian Navy - an unusual policy choice that Davies says is driven by the ability of submarines to dissuade an adversary from entering Australia's maritime approaches.One concern must be the navy's abysmal record in managing technology projects during the past 20 years, ranging from the deeply troubled Collins Class development to the Super Seasprite helicopter debacle.The warships, helicopters and P-8s will represent a big boost to antisubmarine warfare capability, which Australia has allowed to dwindle even as its Asian neighbors have stepped up deployment of modern underwater forces.A proposed class of about 20 minor warships of 2,000 tons - again, far larger than their predecessor patrol boats - may also have some antisubmarine role.Australia has ordered two 27,000-ton helicopter-carrying assault ships to replace two of its three much smaller amphibious vessels. The government now proposes to replace the third with a 10,000-15,000-ton strategic sealift ship and to replace six landing craft with larger units. Given the navy's recent political skill in upsizing successive generations of warships, it would not be surprising to see much larger landing craft.

Posted in: Australia,China,Fighter jet,Submarine